Solar module downright was reversed – PV Magazine International

February 24, 2025
Martin Schachinger, pvxchange.com

From the PV magazine Germany

After they remained flat at the beginning of the year, module prices have increased for the first time for more than two years. The increase affects all technology classes, including highly efficient modules, but the change in this category remains too small to register in price diagrams.

That will probably be postponed soon. Only a few reduced modules remain on the market because the production cuts drive an artificial deficiency. High -efficient modules are always scarce without being cared for immediately.

Some dealers are now in stock in response to the expected deficiency. These modules are no longer sold at bargain prices, but hold back and spend the impending supply gap again. As a result, the module prices will probably be moderate, but until at least in the next quarter.

This outlook reflects delays in deliveries from large brands, whereby the resolution of medium-sized PV systems is only expected after April or May. Modules for large projects follow separate distribution rules and make their prices less volatile due to longer planning and shipping times.

The effects of production cuts extend over the entire market, including the soil modules. The manufacturers share the supply chains so that reduced performance affects all module sizes. According to reports, some Tier 1-Chinese manufacturers have not produced a single module this year, and decisions about the resumption of production after the Chinese New Year remain uncertain. Many suppliers still rely on the share of last year, but the fresh deliveries slow down.

What does that mean for the PV market? Not necessarily bad news.

Overcapacity is still high, especially in China, but analysts expect global demand for modules to increase, while the growth of 25% to 30% slows down to around 8% to 12% annually. The production capacity still exceeds the demand, with 1,400 GW 2025 being projected against a forecast of 660 GW to 700 GW. The factory restrictions could help alleviate the offer clamp, but they bear running costs and probably force smaller manufacturers out of the market.

In Europe, political uncertainty and new regulations dampen PV demand and point to stagnation in important markets. Germany is expected to add only 15 GW this year, a decline of 10% compared to 2024. In 2025, the energy storage and the flexible consumption will be the focus of the Solar Peak Act. Installers who cannot adapt to larger solution providers such as 1komma5 and Enpal already offer AI-driven PV and storage systems and support Germany's political shift.

Smaller installers also have options because many inverter manufacturers now offer open-system or turnkey solutions that help consumers to manage energy costs. With well-large memory and intelligent energy management systems, users can optimize dynamic electricity tariffs-presumably, network operators finally accelerate the long-grown smart meter rollout. The latest adjustments to Renewable Energie-Gentz ​​(EEG) also pave the way for the Bidirectional EV charging, but car manufacturers must now provide the required hardware.

In a future market with dynamic tariffs and bidirectional charging, PV systems are more than just add-on-sie for maximizing self-sufficiency. However, the module price alone is less relevant for the overall system economy. Long-term reliability is more important because the maintenance or replacement costs can undermine the investment returns.

Increasing module prices can cause manufacturers to invest in high -quality raw materials, which is reversed the quality decline, which has been observed with a low price during the recent phase. Modules that were sold in large people in Europe were often missing, especially in the top animal categories, unless the buyers secured specific quality agreements. Since the prices that are now higher, these problems can be solved soon, so end customers will finally receive the reliability they expect from their PV systems.

About the author: Martin Schachinger has examined electrical engineering and has been active in the area of ​​solar and renewable energies for almost 30 years. In 2004 he founded the online trading platform PVXCHANGE.com. The corporate reasons for new installations and solar modules and inverters that are no longer manufactured.

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