Trump policy “promises” an economic downturn, says an outstanding prognostic in the first “recession guard”

The UCLA Anderson forecast, which led significant changes to the economy due to the policy of Trump administration, published its first “recession clock” on Tuesday.

UCLA Anderson, who has been making forecasts since 1952, said that the tariff and the immigration policy of the administration and the plans to reduce the federal employee could arrange for the economy to bring together.

His analysis was entitled “Trump Policies, if fully in force, promises a recession.”

“Although there are no signs of a recession yet, it is quite possible that you can form at short notice,” said a press release from the forecast.

The US recessions are officially explained by the economic cycle -dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The committee employs a large number of indicators, including production, employment, income and growth to determine whether the economy contracts. At the moment, none of the specific indicators seems to be near levels that would cause the committee to declare a recession.

The average respondent of the CNBC Fed Survey for March, published on Tuesday, forecast a probability of recession of 36% compared to 23% in the previous month. But it remains well below the 50% level that prevailed after the pandemic after 2022 and 2023 and turned out to be wrong. This shows how difficult it is to predict a recession or even determine whether the economy is in one. The FED survey also shows that a recession for most Wall Street forecasts is not the base case, but that the problem is slightly increased.

Revessions occur when several sectors move in together in the economy. The forecast of the UCLA Anderson said that the discount of the workforce from the administration of the administration could create labor male, increase the tariffs and lead to a contraction in the processing business, while changes to federal expenditure reduce employment for government workers and private contractors.

“If this and your resulting feedback occur in the demand for goods and services at the same time, create a recipe for a recession,” said the forecast's statement.

Administrative officers, from the president to his highest economic lieutenants, have not expressly withdraw from their politics against the possibility of recession. President Trump said that there would be a “transition period”, while the Commercial Secretary had said that a recession would “reward” for the profits that ultimately come from the guidelines.

Revessions are often the result of unexpected shocks of the economy. The increase in optimism after the election of President Trump, followed by the recent sharp acceptance in some surveys, indicate that both companies and consumers were not prepared for the extent and even the nature of some of the guidelines that have now been pursued.

After the timing, the UCLA Anderson forecast would only say that a recession could develop in the next or two years. In his report it says: “Weaknesses will be created in the households' spending patterns. And the financial sector with increased ratings from assets and newly introduced risk areas is prepared to strengthen a downturn. In addition, the recession could be stagflationary.”