5 Experts tips: A professional guideline for the weather routing

Regardless of whether you prepare for a race or just a leg of a longer race, there is always a process to plan your routing, says Si Fi. “I will see the forecast and the different weather models right from the start.

However, he uses a number of technology to plan the routing, but advises on a kiss (Keep it simple, stupid). “Most I do is based on the expedition and adrena.

The constantly accelerating progress of the AI ​​will in doubt be revolutionized at some point, but he warns that it is to be instructed that the latest technology as a good Seamanship and sailing skills still often exceed technology.

Fisher still has the skills to navigate with sextant and stars, even though he admits: “I have not tried it in the new generation of high -speed foil like the IMOCA.

Choose weather models

There is a large selection of weather models, but the two most important for the global material are the EC (European) model and the GFS (American) model. Then there are also in Great Britain and French models. These are the best models to look at routing when they are good off the coast. However, if you get closer to land and closer to the start of the race, there are a number of local models with a higher resolution that is worth considering.

Most people tend to rely on the EC and GFS models, as they are most available and relevant over a period of more than 24 hours. GFS is completely free and runs four times a day. The EC also runs four times a day, but is usually only downloaded twice a day.

Usually I would first use these two models to understand how the weather works and which main features are in the game. Then I will search for the models with a higher resolution in the last 24 hours before the start to get more details and fine -tuning of the strategy.

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Do the models agree?

If you prepare for a race, check exactly what the different models say. How much do they agree or are they wrong? If you leave for five days and each model has several different answers, you can be quite confident that the forecast will change significantly in the coming days. However, this uncertainty can be useful to determine what to focus on.

In the days before a race, I carry out various models through routing software to see how the answer changes from both run to run and day by day. Is a model to another, or do you converge the same answer? You can be the safest where all models agree, but if you do not agree, you can often pull a little more confidence from the model that is least moving from day to day. Consistency can often indicate more accuracy for this specific scenario.

Ensemble modeling

The modeling of Ensemble is another useful weapon in your weapon chamber, especially for ocean races. GFS and EC have ensemble forecasts in which they start with an initial “tax” model, and then optimize the initial conditions. What you get in the end are 30 different model forecasts in the case of the GFS or 50 in the case of the EC.

It is a useful instrument when and where the forecast deviates over time. By executing several routes and seeing how tightly packed or distributed the routes are, provides valuable insights into the number of strategic options and how consistently the deterministic forecasts are likely.

They often see one or two groups of tightly packed routes, which gives an idea of ​​where the most likely options will be. If the ensemble forecasts or the associated routes fly into chaos after a certain number of days, you will at least say that things change and that you keep your options open and not have to be too radical.

Talk through it

Apart from the fact that scenarios are considered more than one way, it is always good at the human level to discuss routing with a larger group of people. In the Ocean Race program we usually work with a larger team on the coast with the support of professional meteorologists and other navigators.

But there is always a certain chat between the boys in the race – be it their teammates or competitors – because they are all in a similar position. Of course, everyone wants to keep their cards near their chest at a certain level, but it is good to exchange ideas and get a feeling for what other people may look at or worry about.

Manage your risk

Good routing is largely falling back to good risk management. A large part of it is how much risk you put on the weather forecast or a routing option and what the rest of the fleet does. It is a strategy for tactics.

Some decisions and routing options could give you a big win if you work, but if you don't, you will lose everything. There is often a safer option or one in which you can better cover the fleet. Very often it is prudent in the races to give up a few miles if they are ahead to ensure that the fleet does not come by.

I can't emphasize enough how important it is to keep your head away from the boat when you are on the course of the race. You always have to be ready to change your strategy based on the surrounding area, regardless of whether it is the weather, the performance of your boat or your competitors. The strategy of the racing acquisition strategy must take all of these things into account.

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