Big Ten football returning production rankings for 2025

The 2024 offseason has finally died down, and as we wait for the spring transfer portal to open and possible changes to the College Football Playoff, we can start looking at projections for the 2025 season.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly releases his annual returning production rankings. Returning production is key in determining which teams are veteran-heavy and likely set up for the big season. Connelly uses returning production, recruiting, and recent history to form his SP+ projections. Illinois is a prime example of a substantial returning production number in the Big Ten. On the other hand, the ranking can show top-tier teams set to regress, like Washington, who entered 2024 facing a massive roster overhaul after making it to the title game in 2023, resulting in a 6-7 record this past season.

These rankings only include roster changes that took place throughout the winter. The rankings will be updated as teams evolve throughout the spring and practices ramp up. Most player movement happens in the winter, so these first rankings from Connelly still hold the most weight.

Penn State has players like Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and Dani Dennis-Sutton returning, so where do the Nittany Lions fall among the rest of the Big Ten in returning production ahead of the 2025 season?

Each team is ranked based on the 136 Football Bowl Subdivision members.

Returning Production: 32% (No. 127 overall)

Offensive: 27% (No. 130)

Defensive: 37% (No. 118)

Purdue is going through a massive overhaul this offseason, most notably hiring former UNLV head coach Barry Odom to replace Ryan Walters. The Boilermakers’ last star players were Dillon Thieneman (Oregon) and Max Klare (Ohio State), but 29 other faces were added via the transfer portal. Based on the percentages and ranking, a year of regressing would be an accurate prediction, but after a 1-11 season, it can’t get much worse in West Lafayette.

Returning Production: 43% (No. 111 overall)

Offensive: 53% (No. 78)

Defensive: 33% (No. 124)

UCLA enters the second year of the DeShaun Foster era, and the Bruins showed plenty of improvement throughout the season. How new quarterback Joey Aguilar fits into the picture will significantly affect how far the Bruins can go in 2025.

Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire

16. Oregon Ducks

Returning Production: 43% (No. 109 overall)

Offensive: 41% (No. 109)

Defensive: 46% (No. 101)

It may seem surprising to see Oregon this far down the rankings, but returning production means something different for each squad. Oregon is one of the top recruiting programs in the country, therefore diminishing the significance of a higher returning production. Still, the Ducks are losing some key players from their Big Ten title team from a season ago.

Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire

Returning Production: 46% (No. 101 overall)

Offensive: 47% (No. 92)

Defensive: 45% (No. 103)

Like Michigan a year ago, returning production went way down after the Wolverines won the title. Ohio State was the top team in these rankings a year ago, resulting in a national championship. Ohio State fans will likely accept and maybe even expect a bit of a regression after the Buckeyes went all-in in 2024.

Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire

Returning Production: 46% (No. 97 overall)

Offensive: 50% (No. 85)

Defensive: 43% (No. 108)

USC has taken a few steps back after Caleb Williams’s Heisman-winning season. The program still grabs high-level recruits, but the vision hasn’t meshed together for Lincoln Riley and Co. 2025 will be a fascinating year to see which direction the Trojans are actually headed.

Returning Production: 51% (No. 85 overall)

Offensive: 48% (No. 89)

Defensive: 54% (No. 71)

2025 could mark the end of the road for Mike Locksley in College Park if things don’t start to pick up. Coming in at No. 85 in returning production seems to be a positive sign for Terps football after going 4-8 last season, but losing starting QB Billy Edwards to Wisconsin and starting RB Roman Hemby to Indiana means Maryland will be climbing an uphill battle to replace significant production.

12. Washington Huskies

Returning Production: 52% (No. 84 overall)

Offensive: 48% (No. 91)

Defensive: 55% (No. 65)

Now, an offseason removed from making the national title game and losing their head coach to Alabama, the Washington Huskies should be a strong contender in their second Big Ten season. The Huskies would be higher up the ranking if not for the quarterback change from Will Rogers to Demond Williams Jr. Rogers started nearly all games last year, thus owning most of the production. However, the young dual-threat Williams is viewed as a substantial upgrade. The Huskies should be viewed as a team set to improve upon their 6-7 2024 record.

Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire

Returning Production: 57% (No. 65 overall)

Offensive: 67% (No. 35)

Defensive: 48% (No. 95)

Iowa loses star RB Kaleb Johnson, who might have been the talk of the upcoming NFL draft if not overshadowed by Ashton Jeanty’s historic year. Johnson was the key cog for the Hawkeyes’ offense, but Iowa has drastically improved the quarterback position for the first time in a couple of seasons. South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski will take over under center, and the Iowa offense should reap the rewards.

Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire

Returning Production: 58% (No. 57 overall)

Offensive: 54% (No. 76)

Defensive: 62% (No. 35)

Northwestern is a program that needs to return production year after year to sustain success. Impact players rarely sign with the Wildcats, whether highly rated freshmen or transfers. Development is the key to success for Northwestern football, so the more returning players head coach David Braun returns to Evanston every season, the more likely it is to lead to wins.

Returning Production: 60% (No. 50 overall)

Offensive: 68% (No. 30)

Defensive: 53% (No. 74)

Nebraska is in the top 10 thanks to a top-30 returning offensive production. Sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola is the biggest name returning to Lincoln, but most of last year’s offensive unit is returning. At times, the team looked like a legit top-25 team, and at others, it looked like a borderline bowl team. Improving their mediocre 7-6 record will tell if the Cornhuskers took a step forward in 2025.

Returning Production: 61% (No. 44 overall)

Offensive: 61% (No. 55)

Defensive: 60% (No. 45)

Can Indiana run it back in 2025? The numbers above certainly say it is doable. Many of the team’s top players are coming back, but Cignetti will have to replace stud quarterback Kurtis Rourke, which is no easy task. A successful 2025 might mean Indian football is officially back from the dead.

Returning Production: 62% (No. 40 overall)

Offensive: 50% (No. 83)

Defensive: 73% (No. 11)

Minnesota’s defense was a takeaway machine last season. The Golden Gophers also returned 73% of that defense, which racked up 17 interceptions. Still, Minnesota loses veteran QB Max Brosmer to the NFL and must adapt to a younger signal caller. All signs still point to a repeat performance from Minnesota, at least defensively.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions

Returning Production: 63% (No. 33 overall)

Offensive: 72% (No. 14)

Defensive: 53% (No. 73)

At first glance, I was surprised that Penn State was this far down the ranking. However, considering the amount of production the Nittany Lions lost from DE Abdul Carter, it makes sense. QB Drew Allar and star RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen returning are enormous positives for an offense that showed significant signs of improvement last season. The trio should lead to one of the best offensives in the Big Ten. Can Jim Knowles scheme up a defense with several players stepping into more prominent roles?

5. Michigan State Spartans

Returning Production: 63% (No. 30 overall)

Offensive: 72% (No. 17)

Defensive: 55% (No. 64)

Michigan State’s returning production might look even better if it factored in a significant improvement from quarterback Aidan Chiles. If Chiles develops to the next level, the Spartans will be a team to watch in the Big Ten.

Returning Production: 63% (No. 30 overall)

Offensive: 72% (No. 17)

Defensive: 55% (No. 64)

Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire

4. Michigan Wolverines

Returning Production: 64% (No. 29 overall)

Offensive: 63% (No. 47)

Defensive: 64% (No. 28)

After winning the title, the Wolverines ranked near the bottom of this metric after entering last season. Top 2025 QB Bryce Underwood enters the fray with most of their squad back from a season ago. Can Underwood win the starting job as a true freshman? That could decide how high Michigan’s ceiling is this year.

Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire

Returning Production: 64% (No. 25 overall)

Offensive: 67% (No. 34)

Defensive: 62% (No. 39)

These numbers for Wisconsin sure suggest that last year was a severe underachievement. Maryland transfer QB Billy Edwards Jr. looks to take over for Luke Fickell’s squad, which should present a major upgrade under center. A challenging schedule might be the biggest hurdle Wisconsin has to overcome in 2025.

Returning Production: 71% (No. 7 overall)

Offensive: 80% (No. 2)

Defensive: 62% (No. 38)

Rutgers has two winning seasons in a row and is set up to have another in 2025. Starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is back, as is most of the offensive unit except for RB Kyle Monangai.

Returning Production: 76% (No. 3 overall)

Offensive: 78% (No. 5)

Defensive: 75% (No. 8)

Last year’s Illinois team was one of the most underrated top-25 teams all season. The Illini just seemed to get overlooked nationally despite being a squad that did all the little things right. They didn’t turn the ball over and played a winning brand of football, which led to a 10-3 record. Nearly the entire team is back, including senior QB Luke Altmyer. Another 10-win season is undoubtedly on the table for the Illini, including a possible College Football Playoff berth if they can use their returning production to their advantage.

Big Ten football returning production rankings for 2025

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