Bubble Watch 2025: Conference locks for men March Madness

The selection on Sunday is exactly two weeks from this Sunday, and the Bubble Watch picture for the NCAA tournament 2025 further sharpens. According to ESPN Analytics's tournament model, 31 teams have at least 95% chance to do the tournament, while nine more are in solid form (70-95%). However, this leaves 21 teams between 25% and 70% of the probability, their fates are currently unknown.

What are the biggest games on TAP this weekend?

Northwestern vs. Iowa has an impact on Friday evening, and on Sunday both Illinois and Drake will show in action. However, the most important competitions mainly concentrate on Saturday and lead to the Georgia Texas game (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2). See tip times and links to the GameCasts from ESPN for each of the constellations of this weekend under every bladder team below.

Let us build teams into categories through the conference based on your projected NCAA tournament status.

Teams with Lock out According to the BPI forecast, the status has at least 95% chance to do the tournament. (Yes, that means that a team marked as a lock will miss the tournament in 5% of the cases. We have set the threshold there as an allusion to the traditional standard for significance tests.)

A team marked Should in Has a BPI probability of 70% to 94%. These are teams that most likely reach the field of 68, although their fate is not yet fully secure.

And a team with the To do Tag has a tournament currency of 25% to 69% per BPI or will be presented in the latest Bracketology column by ESPN by Joe Lunardi – who is honest, probably better than the algorithm – or has at least 10% chance not to make the tournament dependent on an automatic bid. We will mark these clamp teams with one asterisk. (This is our failure safety for the catching of teams for which the BPI may be too low.) The percentages will be more precise the closer we will get the selection on Sunday, as the work bodies of the teams become stronger.

Another note: The ESPN analysis model is a predictive forecast, which means that it is not representative of whether a team would carry out the tournament if its season ended today, but each team the likelihood that the tournament simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times.

Here is our current bubble projection:

Auto-bids available (conference tournament champion): 31 teams
Bids available: 37 teams
Lock: 31 teams
The bladder: 30 total teams
Should in: 9 teams
To do work: 21 teams

Here is the overview of teams -conference after conference -for which conferences receive projects to increase most NCAA bids. And we have listed the expected number of offers for each of the electricity conferences. In each category, the teams are listed in the order based on their chances of receiving a tournament offer.

Notes: All times are east. Sor = strength of the recording. SOS = strength of the schedule. Net -Ranglisten = the official NCAA evaluation instrument, which is the recommended assessment for the committee. SRS = simple evaluation system. Wab = wins over the bladder, the additional winnings of a team about what a typical Bubble team would have against his schedule.

Jump to a conference:
Sec | Big ten
Big 12 | Acc | Big east
Mid-majors | Other

Sec (11.4 expected offers)

Locks (95% tournament chance)