How many goals does Alex Ovechkin have? Persecution of his chase to catch Wayne Gretzky

Alex Ovechkin will almost certainly break the record of Wayne Gretzky's all-time-goaling record. Ovechkin started 853 goals this season – 41 shy from Gretzkys 894 – and started a big start before he missed the time with an injury in December and slowed down a little since returning. But it's really not a question from If Ovechkin becomes the goal of the goal, but When. Apart from a serious injury, Ovechkin will set the record this season or early next season.

We pursue Ovechkin's chase and try to determine the game in which he will most likely break the record. In the following you will find details – updated daily – where it stands, his last goal, its likelihood, the record this season and in which game and much more to break.

Ovechkin's last goal: No. 885 on March 5 against the Rangers.

Ovechkin scored against the Lightning in the third period and scored 11 goals from Gretzky's record.

Goal No. 885 for Alex Ovechkin 💪

10 Wayne Gretzky 📈 pic.twitter.com/uaqefijmfe

– Sportsnet (@sportsnet) March 6, 2025

Ovechkin needed 42 goals this season to surpass Gretzky for the record of 895 goals.

The following histogram shows that Ovechkin's probable goals have been completed by the end of the season based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The simulation factors for Ovechkin's expected gate (40.1 goals per 82), with whom he plays and where.

Based on these factors, Ovechkin currently has a chance of 52 percent To end the 2024-25 season as NHL. Ovechkins The current one is most likely 41 goalshim at 894 career Goals.

Ovechkin started the season with a chance of 22 percent to break Gretzky Torrecord this season. After a loud start, the chances of Ovechkin quickly increased due to a hot route, in which he scored 13 goals in 11 games. With 15 goals in 18 games, Ovechkin's chances reached a climax of 65 percent on November 18.

These chances of winning slowly removed, with every game that Ovechkin missed due to a broken left fibula until all progress has been deleted through its hot stripes at the moment. The chances of Ovechkin fell to 15 percent after 16 games and continued to drop until a hat trick on February 23 revived his chances.

What makes Ovechkin breaks Gretzky's Torrecord this season is that Ovechkin would do this at the same seasonal speed as Gretzky. This is Ovechkins 20. Season in the NHL – the same amount that Gretzky played for 894. The two are not only in their goal, but also in the speed at which they have reached these heights.

Since it is likely that Ovechkin will not become the leading goal scorer of the NHL of the NHL this season, the most likely game that Ovechkin breaks this season is the last game of the season.

methodology

The likelihood that Ovechkin will break the Torrecord is based on a Monte -Carlo simulation of the rest of the season.

The simulator estimates the likelihood that Ovechkin in a certain game based on his projected edition, the defense strength of his opponent and the question of whether the game is at home or on the way. Ovechkin's forecast edition is based on his last three seasons, weighted for the topicality and attributed to the average of the players who play a similar number of minutes.

This forecast edition, which was adapted for opponents and the venue, is then used to calculate the probability of Ovechkin (or more) using the Poisson distribution.

Ryan Best and John Bradford contributed to this article.

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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; John McCreacy / Nhli / Getty Images)