Level 5 High Risk only issued three other times on Day 2 in US

THIS IS A WVTM 13 SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE. NOW WE ARE CONTINUING TO BRING YOU ALL OUR TEAM COVERAGE AS THIS MAJOR STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS ALABAMA. AND WE WANT TO BRING IN CHIEF METEOROLOGIST JASON SIMPSON, ALONG WITH METEOROLOGIST TAYLOR SARALLO, FOR A BREAKDOWN OF WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OKAY, SO WE HAVE A FEW NEW THINGS, NEW INFORMATION, SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO BRING YOU. SO LET’S GET RIGHT TO IT. FIRST OF ALL TONIGHT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT. EARLIER WE SAID OKAY AFTER 10:00 WE’RE STARTING TO WATCH. WELL NOW WE’RE GOING TO PUSH THAT OUT A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO ABOUT SAY ONE 2:00 IN THE MORNING FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN. AND EVEN THE ZONE WHERE THEY’RE MOVING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN MAYBE INTERSTATE 2059 AT THIS POINT. YEAH, WE’RE GOING TO BE WATCHING NORTHWEST ALABAMA VERY CAREFULLY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEN WE GET KIND OF A BREAK. THERE’S GOING TO BE A LULL IN THAT ACTIVITY GIVING YOU A LITTLE BIT OF TIME JUST TO KIND OF CATCH YOUR BREATH BEFORE WE GET INTO WHAT WE’RE KIND OF CALLING THE MAIN EVENT. THAT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AND THAT’S THE RISK WHERE WE SEE THAT THAT HIGH RISK ZONE ACROSS ALABAMA. RIGHT. TONIGHT’S RISK IS NOT THE HIGH THAT’S ACTUALLY FOR TOMORROW. HERE’S THE UPDATED TIMELINE. AND WE’RE GOING FROM ABOUT 1 A.M. IN WESTERN ALABAMA TO ABOUT 8 A.M. OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE. AND IT’S BECOME VERY CLEAR THAT IF YOU ARE, SAY, EAST OF MOUNT CHEAHA, EAST OF ROCKFORD, INTO TALLAPOOSA COUNTY, TOWARD THE AUBURN AREA, THERE’S NO THREAT DOWN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. ONLY THIS IS ONLY THROUGH 8:00 IN THE MORNING. YOUR BEST CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. THAT’S WHERE WE THINK THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE MOST LIKELY. NOW, THIS IS A HAND DRAWN OUTLOOK HERE. TAYLOR. AND I’VE BEEN DISCUSSING WHERE WE THINK THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE IN THE BRIGHTER ZONE HERE. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE’LL CALL THIS THE LIKELY ZONE. YES. AND SO THIS IS THE ZONE THAT WE’RE REALLY WATCHING FOR SOME STORMS TO POTENTIALLY CLIP OUR STATE AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HERE’S WHAT WE’VE GOT GOING ON RIGHT NOW. AND WE’VE GOT AN OUTBREAK HAPPENING TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI, ARKANSAS INTO ILLINOIS AS WELL. MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS NEAR THE SAINT LOUIS METRO. A LOT OF THE PINK BOXES YOU’RE SEEING HERE ARE CONFIRMED TORNADOES. SO VERIFYING, UNFORTUNATELY, TO OUR NORTHWEST, THIS IS KIND OF WHAT WE EXPECTED TO HAPPEN. AND WE’RE SEEING IT UNFOLD NOW. YEAH. ALREADY A MAJOR OUTBREAK UP THERE. NUMEROUS TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. ROLLA, MISSOURI, WEST PLAINS, MISSOURI. ALTON, ILLINOIS. ALREADY A TORNADO BEING REPORTED THERE. THIS IS A PDS TORNADO WATCH AND TAYLOR THIS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IDEA. IT’S BEEN AROUND FOR A LITTLE OVER A DECADE, BUT IT’S A BIG DEAL. IT IS A BIG DEAL WHEN WE HAVE THAT TAG ON A WATCH. IT NOT ONLY IS IT ITSELF A TORNADO WATCH, BUT IT MEANS THAT THIS COULD BE A DANGEROUS DAY. AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT SOME POINT TOMORROW WE HAVE A PDS WATCH OVER OUR PART OF THE STATE. RIGHT NOW, IT’S STILL TO OUR WEST. THESE ARE THE STORMS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE IMPACTING US EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT FOR NOW, WE’RE HOLDING OFF ON THAT WATCH AS WE WATCH THOSE STORMS GET CLOSER TO OUR STATE REALLY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AND THESE ARE SOME OF THE COUNTIES THAT WOULD BE MOST IMPACTED IF WE WERE TO HAVE A WATCH. WE PROBABLY WILL HAVE ONE OVERNIGHT. IT’S PROBABLY GOING TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF I-65, PROBABLY A BIT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH WEST ALABAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEY BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH ABOUT TWO AND 3:00 IN THE MORNING NEAR THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI BORDER, AND THEN BETWEEN FOUR AND SEVEN, YOU START TO SEE THEM GETTING CLOSER THERE TO PLACES LIKE HAMILTON AND SCOTTSVILLE. AND WE’VE BEEN SAYING THIS ALL DAY, THE THESE FORECAST MODELS DO A GOOD JOB OF PREDICTING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. THEY DON’T DO A GREAT JOB WITH THE EXACT POSITION. AND THAT’S WHY WE HAD DRAWN THAT BLUE ZONE HERE, THAT IT EVEN GOES A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN MAYBE WHERE YOU’RE SEEING THAT STORM DRAWN ON BY THE FUTURE RADAR THERE. WATCHING THAT WHOLE ZONE. WE GET KIND OF A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, SAY, AFTER 8 A.M. THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT THAT’S REALLY WHEN WE’RE GOING TO START WATCHING HOW THINGS BEHAVE TO OUR WEST. WE’RE GOING TO REALLY GET A GOOD IDEA FOR HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON, BASED ON HOW THINGS REALLY START TO FORM OVER MISSISSIPPI TO OUR WEST TOMORROW. AND HERE’S SOMETHING THAT WE HAD NOT REALLY MENTIONED EARLIER, BUT THE LACK OF RAIN IN BIRMINGHAM, TUSCALOOSA, SHELBY COUNTY, SAINT CLAIR COUNTY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS AREA RIGHT HERE DOWN IN LOWNDES COUNTY, MONTGOMERY COUNTY AT 8 A.M. IS CLEAR. IT IS BRILLIANT SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THAT WILL EFFECT NORTHWARD OR MOVE NORTHWARD SO AS THE CLOUDS DECREASE, WE’RE GOING TO BRING THE TEMPERATURE UP. WE’RE GOING TO BRING THE HUMIDITY UP. THAT RAISES THE INSTABILITY. AND IT BECOMES A VERY WELL MESHED, VERY WELL BALANCED STORM SYSTEM. AND THERE’S OUR HIGH RISK. THIS WILL BE UPDATED AT 1 A.M. I DON’T REALLY EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO IT. AND FOR THE MOMENT IT DOESN’T MATTER. LIKE WALKER COUNTY, THERE’S NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RISK IN JASPER AND NAUVOO. NO, THERE’S JUST NOT. YEAH. AND AT THIS POINT, ALMOST THE ENTIRE STATE IN A MODERATE OR A HIGH RISK, IT JUST MEANS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. UNFORTUNATELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE’S NOT MUCH THAT’S GOING TO KEEP US FROM SEEING THOSE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. AND ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WHY WE HAVE THAT HIGH RISK IS THE RISK FOR POTENTIAL TORNADOES TOMORROW. AND THIS IS A 30% CHANCE HERE. NOW, THAT’S NOT JUST A 30% CHANCE OF A TORNADO. THIS IS A 30% CHANCE OF A EF2 OR GREATER TORNADO WITHIN 25 MILES OF YOUR LOCATION. SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO TAKE SERIOUSLY WHEN YOU SEE 30% RIGHT OFF THE TOP THERE. THAT DOESN’T SOUND LIKE A HIGH CHANCE, BUT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THE CHANCE OF A TORNADO WITHIN 25 MILES OF YOUR LOCATION THAT MAXES OUT AT 60%. IT DOESN’T GO HIGHER THAN THAT. SO 30% IS A HUGE, HUGE STATEMENT FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. AS FAR AS CONFIDENCE GOES AND AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THESE TORNADOES WOULD BE. AND WHEN YOU HAVE THE HATCHED, YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT, THAT MEANS THAT THESE NOT ONLY ARE THEY GOING TO BE STRONG TORNADOES, THEY COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE KIND THAT STAY ON THE GROUND AND LAST A WHILE. LONG TRACK TORNADOES AS WELL. THERE’S YOUR TIMELINE STARTING AROUND NOON. THIS IS THE MAIN WAVE STARTING AROUND NOON, GOING THROUGH 9 P.M. AND GRACIOUS, THAT’S A LONG TIME. YEAH, THAT IS A LONG TIME FOR US TO SAY, OKAY, BETWEEN ALICEVILLE AND TUSCALOOSA, YOU’VE GOT NINE HOURS TO BE WORRIED ABOUT THIS. BETWEEN BIRMINGHAM AND HOOVER AND CALERA AND SPRINGVILLE, IN COLEMAN AND ONEONTA. YOU’VE GOT NINE HOURS BETWEEN 2 P.M. AND 11 P.M. WE LEAVE THESE A LITTLE WIDER THAN THE REAL START IN TIME, BECAUSE THERE’S ALWAYS SOME BUILT IN UNCERTAINTY, BUT I AM CONFIDENT THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE OVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1:00 ON SUNDAY MORNING, SO WE WON’T HAVE TO BE UP ALL NIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT WATCHING THIS. BUT TOMORROW ITSELF, THAT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD. NO. AND WE GET A LOT OF IDEAS ON HOW THIS MIGHT PLAY OUT BY LOOKING AT KIND OF THE STORM MODES. THESE MODELS DO A GOOD JOB SHOWING US THAT. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SITUATION WHERE YOU JUST HAVE ONE QUICK LINE THAT COMES THROUGH. WE’RE WATCHING ALONG THE LINE FOR QUICK SPIN UP TORNADOES. THAT IS NOT THE KIND OF DAY WE HAVE TOMORROW. WE’RE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW. SO ANY OF THESE THAT YOU SEE ON HERE, ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BE PRODUCING TORNADOES TOMORROW. RIGHT? AND THIS IS ALL HAPPENING WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME. AND REMEMBER, IT’S A WIDE WINDOW BECAUSE WE’VE GOT STORMS IN CALHOUN COUNTY AND WE’VE STILL GOT STORMS IN PICKENS COUNTY, AND WE’VE GOT STORMS NEAR HAMILTON AND CULLMAN AND SOME NEAR CLANTON AND CALERA AND TALLADEGA. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS. BUT HERE’S THE GOOD NEWS. BY 10 TO 11:00 TOMORROW, ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW, THIS THREAT IS GOING TO START TO MOVE INTO THE REAR VIEW MIRROR. THE INDEX HERE, THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER, IT’S UP NEAR THAT EXTREME END. SO WE ARE MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT WITH EVERY PASSING HOUR THAT WHEN THESE DEVELOP AND THEY CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE THEY’RE GOING TO DEVELOP QUICKLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THEY COULD BE EXTREME. YEAH. AND YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TORNADO DAYS HERE IN ALABAMA. THAT’S A PART OF LIVING IN THIS STATE. WE HAVEN’T HAD A TORNADO DAY IN A WHILE. IT’S BEEN A COUPLE YEARS SINCE WE’VE HAD A HIGH RISK ACROSS ALABAMA. IF YOU’RE NEW TO THE STATE, THIS MIGHT BE YOUR FIRST TIME GOING THROUGH THIS. I KNOW THIS CAN CAUSE A LOT OF ANXIETY, BUT THERE’S A LOT YOU CAN DO RIGHT NOW. YOU STILL HAVE TIME TO PREPARE. MAKE SURE YOU’RE LETTING YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY KNOW THAT THEY NEED TO BE PAYING ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER. TOMORROW. YOU WANT TO HAVE YOUR TORNADO PLAN. THAT’S THE BIGGEST THING TO THINK ABOUT RIGHT NOW IS IF A TORNADO WARNING HAPPENS FOR YOUR LOCATION TOMORROW. RIGHT NOW, I WANT YOU TO THINK ABOUT WHERE YOU ARE GOING TO BE AS SOON A

NWS: Level 5 High Risk for severe weather has only been issued three other times on Day 2

Updated: 12:51 AM CDT Mar 15, 2025

LATEST FORECAST | STATE OF EMERGENCY | STORM SHELTERS | WVTM 13 LIVE DOPPLER RADAR | UPLOAD YOUR WEATHER PHOTOS | WAYS TO STAY SAFE | GET WEATHER NOTIFICATIONSA rare Level 5 High Risk has been issued between Mississippi and Alabama on Saturday.Learn how to turn on WVTM 13 weather alerts in the video player above.This is only the third time since 2006 and likely only the third time in their history that a High Risk of severe weather was issued on Day 2, according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center.The upgraded risk was issued at 1:30 p.m. CST on Friday.Typically, the Storm Prediction Center will issue a High Risk on Day 1, which would begin at 1 a.m. CST on Saturday.When has this happened before? The NWS Storm Prediction Center said this happened on April 14, 2012 and April 7, 2006.During the 2012 event, the NWS said there were more than 100 tornado reports throughout the Midwest.Meanwhile, on April 7 and 8 in 2006, tornadoes touched down in several Alabama counties, including Winston, Jefferson, Talladega and Marion Counties. The NWS said one woman died in Marion County after she ran into a downed tree on State Highway 187. Fallen trees also left a person hurt there, according to the NWS. Tornadoes also hit other states on April 7, 2006, including Tennessee and Kentucky.Emergency Management Agencies across Alabama are preparing for the threat of severe weather Friday and Saturday. Take a look at an Alabama tornado shelter below.

LATEST FORECAST | STATE OF EMERGENCY | STORM SHELTERS | WVTM 13 LIVE DOPPLER RADAR | UPLOAD YOUR WEATHER PHOTOS | WAYS TO STAY SAFE | GET WEATHER NOTIFICATIONS

A rare Level 5 High Risk has been issued between Mississippi and Alabama on Saturday.

Learn how to turn on WVTM 13 weather alerts in the video player above.

This is only the third time since 2006 and likely only the third time in their history that a High Risk of severe weather was issued on Day 2, according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center.

The upgraded risk was issued at 1:30 p.m. CST on Friday.

Typically, the Storm Prediction Center will issue a High Risk on Day 1, which would begin at 1 a.m. CST on Saturday.

When has this happened before?

The NWS Storm Prediction Center said this happened on April 14, 2012 and April 7, 2006.

During the 2012 event, the NWS said there were more than 100 tornado reports throughout the Midwest.

Eric Francis

Meanwhile, on April 7 and 8 in 2006, tornadoes touched down in several Alabama counties, including Winston, Jefferson, Talladega and Marion Counties.

The NWS said one woman died in Marion County after she ran into a downed tree on State Highway 187. Fallen trees also left a person hurt there, according to the NWS.

Tornadoes also hit other states on April 7, 2006, including Tennessee and Kentucky.

Scott Olson

Emergency Management Agencies across Alabama are preparing for the threat of severe weather Friday and Saturday. Take a look at an Alabama tornado shelter below.