Long upwards

Chicago after four years of spiral recruitment, agricultural land values ​​in the seventh Federal Reserve District have recorded an annual decline of 1%.

For the first time in five and six years, Illinois or Indiana recorded an annual decline in their arable land values, both fell by 3% compared to the previous year, while Iowa decreased by 2%.

In contrast, Wisconsin for 2024 recorded a single -digit annual increase of 8% of agricultural land. A banker in Wisconsin found that “very little land was still offered for sale”.

Overall, the values ​​of districts rose to the fourth quarter of 1%in the third quarter of 2024.

The results and Elizabeth Kepner, Senior Research Analyst, published by David Oppedahl, seventh district counseling, and published in the district of District, are based on respondents of 133 agricultural banks.

The seventh district of Chicago comprises the northern two thirds of Illinois and Indiana, all Iowa, the southern two thirds of Wisconsin and Michigans Lower Peninsula.

The inflation of the price index of personal consumption adjusted in the district price index of the district and recorded an annual decline of 3.4%in 2024, the first real decline in five years and the largest real decline since 2014.

District Ackerland values ​​relegated from their climax in 2023, but were still 11% above the top value from 2013 in real terms and 43% compared to their 2013 high 2013.

“In 2024, strong crop yields were a blessing for a majority of agricultural farmers in the seventh district, although at least part of the vegetation period in large parts of the district of drought,” said Openahl.

Based on calculations using data from the US Agricultural Ministry, the corn returns of the district states in 2024 increased by 3.7% compared to 2023 and their soybean returns by 1.1%.

The harvested corn morning had dropped by 3.2% in 2024, while the harvested soybean hectares rose by 3.5% by 3.5%.

In the net, corn production in the seventh district states increased by 0.3%and after the 2016 record reached 6.8 million bushel, the second most common ever.

In addition, soybean production after district states rose by 4.6%to 1.84 million bushels, the second largest ever behind 2021.

National corn stocks decreased by 1% compared to 2023, while soybean stocks rose by 3%. Although the corn stocks decreased, the USDA predicted the prices for the harvest year 2024-2025 of USD 4.25 per bushel for corn, by 6.6% compared to the previous harvest year.

In view of the broader availability of soybeans, their prices were expected to be forecast by 18%per bushel.

Based on these prices, the estimated income for the 2024 harvest of the seventh states of district states for corn by 6.3% and 14% for soybeans compared to their level of 2023 by 14%.

cattle

“In contrast, the prices for cattle products were much higher at the end of 2024 than at the beginning of the year. In December 2024, the price index for cattle and the associated products rose by 33%compared to 2023. The prices for cattle, pigs and milk rose by 10%, 18%or. 14%”, said Oppedahl.

“In view of the continuing effects of Vogel Influenza, egg prices rose by 132% compared to the previous year, although these prices were 4% compared to two years ago.

“According to the USDA's assessment for 2024 in February, the net income for the nation of 2023 was decreased by 5.6% (or 8.2 billion US dollars) despite lower input costs, mainly due to inventory adjustments and lower state payments.

“The slump in cash income from Farm from 2023 was low, since the decline in cash income for plants was almost exclusively balanced by increasing cash income for animals and their products.”

In 2024, National Nettofarm income remained, although from 2023, above its level of 2020. The more severe trust in the district in corn and soybean income provided many farms in the region.

Credit conditions

The district's agricultural credit conditions continued to show signs of deterioration in the fourth quarter of 2024.

In the last quarter of 2024, the repayment rates for non-real Estate farm loans were significantly higher than a year earlier in a previous year and the extension of the loan depictions.

The survey showed that 1.7% of agricultural borrowers in 2025 were not qualified for company loans at the banks of the respondents in 2025 after qualifying in the previous year.

The fifth quarter in a row had increased not real-state agricultural demand compared to a previous year. For the seventh time in a row, there were fewer means for lending than in the same quarter of the previous year with the banks of the respondents.

The average ratio of loans and deposits for the seventh district rose to 76.7%in the fourth quarter of 2024.

At the end of 2024, the average nominal interest rates of the district for agricultural operator and feeder cattle loans were somewhat lower than at the end of the third quarter of last year, while its average nominal interest rate for agricultural real estate loans was unchanged.

The average real interest rates for all three types of loans that were pursued in the survey have been at the lowest level since the third quarter of 2023.

I'm looking forward to

There were fewer responding bankers, only 4%that predicted in the first quarter of 2025 that rose agricultural land values, or 26%, which had predicted that they would go under.

“After this was said, there seemed to be some transactions for arable land in places too much higher prices than for a similar floor elsewhere. An IMLINOIS questioner led this phenomenon to “strong competition among the neighbors who shop with cash,” said Oppedahl.

“Therefore, there will probably be a pronounced variability of the sales prices for certain plots. On average, however, it was expected that District -Packerland values ​​will be moved relatively flat or slightly downwards in the first quarter of 2025, as it had been before pandemic. “