Mid America conditions Index climbs again in February

The Creighton University Mid-America Business Constants Index is again above the growth-neutral rate of 50.0. The index, an economic indicator of a region with nine states, including IOWA, reached 52.0 in February, compared to 51.1 in January and 48.7 in December.

The index uses the same methodology as the Institute for Supply Management and is between 0 and 100, with 50.0 representing growth neutral. The creighton index, which is produced independently of the ISM, has fluctuated neutrally since April 2023.

“I am still concerned about the negative effects of tariffs on the costs for imported inputs and about the retaliation on US exports. On average, the supply managers expect that the proposed tariffs will increase the cost of imported inputs by 9.6%, ”said Ernie Goss, chairman of Jack A. Macallister in Regional Economics at Creighton University, in a press release.

In Iowa, the state for February the index rose 43.1 to 44.5 compared to January. In the Nine State region, Iowa took seventh place for the month, with Missouri the highest index assessment at 56.2 and Kansas with 43.1.

New orders in Iowa rose from 46.9 in January and 44.3 to 48.1 in December. The production or sales of IOWA had dropped to 40.4 in January and 42.1 in December. The delivery time of Iowa landed in February after 46.3 in January and 45.4 in December 37.4.

The entire regional employment index for February improved 51.1 to 51.2 compared to January and in Iowa it was 47.8, compared to 35.1 in January and 47.8 December. According to the report, despite weak employment readings last year, around 1 out of 4 companies had to register regionally as their highest economic challenge of 2025.

The regional inventory index, which reflects the raw material and supplies, rose from 52.8 in January Regional and Iowa to 51.4, at 48.0 out of 43.0 in January and 24.6 in December.

“In the expectation of higher costs from the implementation of the tariff, the companies continue to apply to their existence,” said Goss.

According to data from the US -international trade administration, the regional economy expanded the export of manufactured goods by 1.0 billion US dollars for a profit of 1.1% by $ 1.0 billion in 2024. With regard to 2023 to 2024 export winners, Minnesota recorded the top profit with a supplement of 2.1 billion US dollars, and North Dakota recorded the greatest loss by reducing the export of manufacturing goods by $ 3.1 billion.

According to ITA data, the manufacturing exports for IOWA decreased by $ 1.5 billion for a reduction of 9% between 2023 and 2024.

The index showed that the relatively strong dollar continues to make us cheaper competitions abroad and that the export index below growth is neutral to 44.6, but falls below 41.7 in January. The supply managers urged the concerns about higher costs of tariffs to buy early from abroad, and also carried the import index to a record high of 68.2 compared to 67.5 in January, also a record high, the report said.

The price display in February rose to 63.2, its highest level since May 2024 and compared to 62.0 in January. “The regional inflation scale has clearly moved to an area, which indicates that inflation pressure moves higher. Nevertheless, I expect the FED to leave interest rates unchanged from March 18 to 19 March, ”said Goss.

The trust index in February fell to 45.7 compared to 61.4 January and 52.8 in December. The trust index measures the optimism that looks ahead for six months. “Due to concerns about global economic tensions and rising tariffs, only a third of the pension managers expect to improve the terms and conditions in the next six months,” said Goss.

The Creighton Economic forecast group has carried out the monthly survey among supply managers in nine states since 1994 in order to create economic indicators for the Mid America economy. The states contained in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Take a look at the YouTube video from Goss' report.