Stock market outlook: NIFTY Q4 result season Pattern: Lastally, Jitter and the big comeback – are you ready?

Since it is known that the story rhymes, if not repeated, the stock market investors observe a well -established pattern: a rally before maintaining, correction during the result period and a subsequent recovery. Historical data indicate that Nifty has recorded an upswing in the three to four weeks before the fourth quarter of 70% of the cases are clear in the 30% of cases. However, the first 30 days of the winning season have historically achieved flat returns with a negative distortion.

But what happens next? The data show that Nifty has achieved an average return of 5.7% in the three months after the fourth quarter, with a profit of 8%+ half of the cases. The next 6 months are even brighter with an average return of 8.75%.

In the past 10 years, the March Month has largely been positive for the markets, apart from exceptions that were observed in 2015, as global concerns such as China's Yuan devaluation and the uncertainty of Brexit, and in 2018, when Nifty decreased by around 3% due to trade voltages and rising crude oil prices. The most extreme case came in March 2020, when the Covid 19 pandemic triggered a historical sale and marked one of the sharpest market accidents in recent history.

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Where is the market now?

If the fourth quarter of 2025 unfolds, the Indian stock market is created from a rough patch. Since October 2024, Nifty has been exposed to a sharp correction, which was burdened by weak company income, stretched ratings, rising raw prices and FII drains. Political uncertainty in relation to the US elections and the rate increase as part of President Trump have further developed volatility.

“However, the Indian markets have shown signs of resilience, with a positive recovery of 2%+ in March 2025, which indicates that some of these concerns may have already been evaluated. In the future, the ability of the market to regain the lost soil will largely be from a recovery of the company's profit, despite the ongoing geopolitical overhang”, OM Ghawkar, Market Analyst Share.

Technical data indicate space for a higher movement

“Over 60% of the refined 500 components have have their Bollinger bands with medium Bollinger,” says Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. “In view of the fact that we leave a 5.5-month downward trend, the chances of further pressing towards the upper Bollinger gang are quite high.”

The role of income in the next stage of the rally

Since the share prices were slave for the result, the quarterly season of earnings for investors in the last three quarters was painful. NIFTY CONSENSUS EPS estimates for CY25 were reduced by around 2% (Yoy) in February with the completion of the winning season in December.

“A market recovery largely depends on the income based on the income,” says Seshadri sen, head of research and strategy at Emkay Global Financial Services. “After the earnings time of the Q2, the drains are replaced, but we are not too much in the FJ26 EPS growth of 13.6% (Emkay estimates), but consensus forecasts have to conduct the conversation during the next income period (Apr-25), which we have with the NO-20-year-olds from 22,500 to a value of 22,500 to the back, with a significant recovery of 22,500 except for 11.

Morgan Stanley is ahead of the consensus on profits. “It is crucial that the relative profit growth also on the conservative conservative forecasts is the reviews that have ignored the RBI policy in the area of ​​the RBI pandemy.

The macrobild: growth with uncertainty

ICRA expects an intake growth of 7 to 8% worth 7 to 8% for India Inc. in the fourth quarter of 2025, which is due to a revival of rural demand and increased government expenditure. However, the company warns of global risks. Commercial tariffs and further developing global uncertainties can weigh up growth, says Kinjal Shah, Senior Vice President & Co group manager company ratings at ICRA.

A decisive factor will be the resilience of consumer demand. “In H1 CY2025 it is expected that rural demand is supported by strong Kharif harvest production and a favorable Rabi season after the sluggish Rabi season is supported due to the income tax relief in the household budget, the monetary honor by the RBI and a moderation of food inflation.”

The judgment: is the pattern kept?

The setup for the winning season in the fourth quarter is similar to previous years of careful optimism, profit support and external risks. If there are historical trends, Nifty could see a rally before winning, a modest decline during the result season and a meaningful re -plump in the following months.

But as the past has shown, it can surprise geopolitical shocks, global political movements or unexpected downgrades of the profit-one wrench in the best expectations. For investors, it is about staying nimble, pursuing the surprises of the profits and positioning potential opponents as soon as the dust takes off.

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