“The world will violate 1.5 ° ° until September 2029 if the trend continues” | Last news India

The ambient temperatures have already reached 1.38 ° C above the pre -industrial values, whereby the service known as C3S was known.

“With the C3S global temperature trend monitor, based on #era5, you can examine how the estimate of the time has changed to 1.5 ° C global warming in recent years. Although it should not be interpreted as a forecast, it shows trends in global warming, ”C3S wrote to X, whereby since the 2000s they referred to steep heating trends and attached a diagram at which the point at which the current trend would exceed the decisive threshold.

The service known as C3S reported that global warming in February 2025 already reached 1.38 degrees Celsius at pre -industrial level.

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The 1.5-degree threshold was the heart of the Paris climate agreement in 2016-now in danger since the United States was withdrawn from this under the new President Donald Trump. The violation of the 1.5-degree threshold is a critical turning point for the planet, whereupon the effects of the climate become significantly heavier and wider. At 1.5 degrees heating, about 14% of the earth's population would be exposed to at least every five years of heavy heat waves, while at 2 degrees this proportion would more than double, up to 37% of the population.

For the first time in the ERA5 data set-a detailed global atmospheric data record-the surface temperatures for 12 consecutive months 1.5 ° C above the average of 1850-1900 enriched C3S.

The service offers monthly updates of the global surface air temperatures using the latest reanalysed data. Through the analysis of the 30-year-old linear trend that leads to the latest data, it estimates the current warming and projects when the most important threshold values ​​are exceeded.

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“With a warming of more than 1.5 ° C last year, if only temporarily, we enter a zone in which the risk of climate change is high,” said Jim Skea, chairman of the Intergovern Mental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), who spoke in Delhi at the beginning of this month on the worldwide sustainable development room in Delhi.

“Warm water coral reef could completely disappear with 2 degrees Celsius heating, and land-based systems are a high risk in connection with forest fires, permafrost breakdown and loss of the biological diversity … really every fraction of a degree,” added SKEA.

M Rajeevan, former secretary of the Indian Earth Science Ministry, described the findings alarming, but not unexpected. “This is a very interesting and important act. We cross the threshold of 1.5 ° C much before. This will have a serious impact on extreme weather events. I'm sorry to see that we don't learn from previous lessons, ”he said.

The IPCC's synthesis report of the sixth evaluation report (AR6) – The latest estimates of the internationally recognized scientific authority for climate change – predicts in 2023 that the 1.5 ° C threshold will probably be violated in early 2030.

Most parts of the world have recorded unprecedented temperatures in the past 18 months, including India. This was partly due to an El Niño weather pattern that started in May 2023 and ended in May 2024. Even during the subsequent weak La Niña phase – the normally cooler temperatures brings with it in December, January and February.

The C3S projections are changed in the middle of climate policy in several countries, especially in the USA. Shortly after he had instructed the United States to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, President Donald Trump signed. The US delegation did not take part in the IPCC meeting in China last week, which indicates the retreat from the organization that is currently ongoing.

The Trump administration also released hundreds of researchers and meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A movement that warn scientists will have a significant impact worldwide.

Climate measures seem to slow down because only a few countries have updated their nationally defined contributions (NDCs) – plans with climate protection measures – until the deadline in February. Most G20 members, including the great economies such as China, India and the European Union, have not yet announced their NDCs 2035 and missed the United Nations Convention on Climate Change period of February 10th. Several countries stated that in November the plans to submit destinations before the COP30 climate conference in Belém, Brazil, in November. Canada, Japan, Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates are among the few who updated their NDCs.

In an interview with Hindustan Times 2023, IPCC warned Vice Chair: “The global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius is exceeded in the 21st century, unless there has been a deep reduction in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.”