What Germany's election result for the EU means

A large coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD appears the most likely result after the election of Germany. But what does the result for Europe mean? Attach to the original expert data, Ann-Kathrin Reinl And Stefan Wallaschek Remove the disagreements between the two coalition partners towards the EU social and defense policy as potential climbing points.

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After the German national elections, two probable coalitions appeared. The first is a “Grand Coalition” between the SPD (16.4%) and CDU/CSU (28.5%), which holds a narrow Bundestag majority (328 out of 630 seats). This coalition is known to the voters and was the most preferred option before the choice.

A second, less likely scenario is a CDU/CSU SPD Green coalition (“Kenya”), which forms an oversized majority. Such a coalition would enable a stronger mandate to carry out political initiatives, but it would also be necessary to share more ministries and political responsibility – something that the CDU/CSU would probably avoid. A CDU/CSU coalition with the right-wing extremist alternative for Germany (AfD) remains theoretically possible, but the CDU leader Friedrich Merz has excluded it.

A return of the German engine in Brussels?

The previous “amput of the” Amput coalition “, led by SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz with the Greens and the FDP, pursued ambitious, but often different visions for the EU. While the SPD and the green urged deeper integration, the FDP remained careful. These tensions that recognized in the coalition agreement became clearer than disagreements between the three parties led to Germany often delayed or delayed on decisions in Brussels – a problem that was called “German vote”.

During the election campaign, Friedrich Merz criticized the government because he waived important voices and created uncertainties among the Member States. He promised a more assertive EU posture. However, the recently proposed “five points plan” of the CDU/CSU for migration, which includes an entry ban for asylum seekers and constant national border controls, was convicted as a violation of the EU law. It remains uncertain whether a government conducted by the CDU will revive Germany's role in EU integration. The EU directive also depends on the attitude of its coalition partners.

The Open Expert Survey 2025

After its first introduction in 2021, an expert survey – the Open Expert Survey (OES2025) – was carried out for the second time. Political scientists were invited to control questions about the programmatic positioning of parties, with a total of 131 experts completing the survey. The survey includes several points in connection with European integration and offers some important insights into the order of the next German government.

Figure 1 shows the positions of all parties represented in the newly elected German Bundestag as to whether the EU will be given further skills in the future. The AfD is the most opposing party while the Greens are the strongest supporters. The potential CDU/CSU SPD coalition has a similar attitude, which indicates the continuity of Germany's EU policy with limited efforts to integrate deeper integration. The low profile of European affairs in the election campaign also underlines the reluctance of the potential Grand Coalition to urge an ambitious EU vision.

Figure 1: Positioning the political parties on the skills of the EU

Source: Open Expert Survey (OES2025)

In addition to the general attitude of the parties to the EU integration, two important political areas will be particularly crucial in the coming years: internal redistribution and external security. Figure 2 shows these dimensions: The Y axis reflects domestic and EU resource allocation (internal redistribution), while the X-axis represents support for a common EU security and defense policy compared to national sovereignty in this area (external security).

Figure 2: Positioning the political parties for deeper EU integration

Source: Open Expert Survey (OES2025)

In the internal redistribution, the SPD supports the EU-wide resource release, albeit less than the Greens or the left party. The CDU and the CSU, on the other hand, prioritize a stronger national focus and prefer the domestic allocation of resources compared to redistribution at EU level. These differences could restrict Germany's willingness to push a deeper EU-wide social integration.

When it comes to external security, the SPD and CDU/CSU are largely necessary to strengthen the EU security and defense cooperation. It remains uncertain whether this relatively careful urge to deeper EU engagement is sufficient to cope with the current international security challenges.

In particular, the two potential coalition partners turn away from an important foreign policy topic: While the SPD is due to the expansion of military support for Ukraine, the CDU/CSU supports a visibility between Scholz and Merz for stronger measures, such as the provision of Taurus rockets and the progress of an EU security strategy.

In addition, disagreements about the future of debt brake and the financing of defense spending in security policy during the coalition negotiations could transform into a great obstacle, which may affect decisive ministries such as defense, external affairs and finances.

Implications for Brussels

In summary, a new German government, formed by the CDU/CSU and SPD, could have a significant impact on the future of the EU. Both parties modestly support the deeper integration and a common security and defense policy and probably reduce the internal departments compared to the traffic light coalition, in which the “German vote” often stailed EU-wide decisions. However, important EU-related differences remain-in particular the reluctance of the CDU/CSU to promote the EU's social dimension.

In addition, the European People's Party (EPP) will increase the presence in the EU because Merz is the new Chancellor. It already has important EU positions – with Ursula von der Leyen as President of the Commission – and 12 out of 27 government managers in the European Council are now in the EPP. It is also the largest group in the European Parliament that will probably lead to weaker climate policy and stricter asylum and migration policy.

In the middle of Donald Trump's presidency and Russia's persistent war in Ukraine, EU security will request a coordinated reaction. In it, the EU will rely more than ever on a strong, coherent leadership of the next German government.

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Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European politics and politics or the London School of Economics. Selected photo certificate: Penofoto / Shutterstock.com

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