Why is the fire risk this year in San Antonio and Hill Country so high?

If you have been paying attention to the weather lately, it seems that we have almost every other day with red flag warnings, high risk of fire, gusty winds and dry weather.

We had dust and smoke and devastating fire like the Crabapple Fire and Duke Fire.

So what is the deal? Why is the fire risk this year so much higher? You need to know the following:

Key points:

• A weak La Niña has not yet been completed, and La Niña tends to make our weather pattern drier and more wrapped.

• We are in the middle of a drought several years, which increases the risk of fire.

La niña

If you look at the best five years for forest fire damage in Texas, the years have one thing in common: they were La Niña years.

La Niña is a complex weather pattern that results from average average water in the Pacific Ocean. But why does La Niña increase the risk of fire in Texas?

The answer is double: La Niña Show the weather patterns north and tends to do so reinforce.

La Niña shifts the weather patterns north

La Niña has a big influence on the jet stream, which is a rapidly moving air flow that creates storm systems.

In a normal year, the Jet stream positions itself in such a way that we give ourselves the usual amount of precipitation. On the other hand, the jet stream – during a year in La Niña – is pushed north, healthy rain with itself and lets South Central Texas dry as average.

Vegetation remains dry without healthy rains and creates fuels for potential brush fire. The forest fire risk increases significantly.

La Niña strengthens the wind

La Niña is not only postponed north, but also reinforces the jet electricity, which strengthens low pressure systems. A stronger low -pressure system means greater winds, and stronger winds increase the risk of grass fires significantly.

Multi -year drought

Dürre has a major impact on the forest fire risk. If we don't get rain, the vegetation dries out and the dry vegetation drives grass fire.

Whether you believe it or not, the last time when South Central Texas was drought, was in late 2021/early 2022. That means we were in one Continuous drought for three years.

Dürre has the evil habit of getting worse before it gets better. This is because drought often creates a feedback loop: dry soil means that there is less evaporation than normal. With less evaporation, rain cannot form so easily. And if it doesn't rain, the floors dry out. This starts the cycle again and the loop simply repeats itself and makes the drought worse.

When does drought end?

Unfortunately, it is impossible to know when exactly the multi-year drought will end in South Central Texas. But what we know is that it would take A lot of rain to end the drought.

According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, we would need 20 to 27 inches to remove the drought within the next six months. To mention unnecessarily that this is much more rain than normal. It will probably require a flood event to help with drought conditions. And if you have been in San Antonio for long enough, you know that our intensive droughts usually end with great floods.

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